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Lokomotive Pamir vs Khujand — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Lokomotive Pamir
Lokomotive Pamir
FT
0 – 2
Khujand
Khujand
7/4/2020Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 8Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lokomotive Pamir33%
×Draw24%
Khujand42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotive Pamir
1.39
Khujand
1.60

Khujand creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 97 away

creates per match

Lokomotive Pamir
1.44
Khujand
1.31

allows per match

Lokomotive Pamir
1.89
Khujand
1.34

finishing

Lokomotive Pamir+0.00on par
Khujand+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotive Pamir ↓

Khujand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lokomotive Pamir or draw
58%
Lokomotive Pamir or Khujand
76%
Draw or Khujand
67%

Winning margin

Lokomotive Pamir wins by 2+
15%
Khujand wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Lokomotive Pamir 1+ goals
75%
Lokomotive Pamir 2+ goals
40%
Lokomotive Pamir 3+ goals
16%
Khujand 1+ goals
80%
Khujand 2+ goals
47%
Khujand 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lokomotive Pamir (draw refunded)
44%
Khujand (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotive Pamir at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Khujand away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotive Pamir attack 1.44 + Khujand defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Khujand attack 1.31 + Lokomotive Pamir defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lokomotive Pamir scores more
33%
level
24%
Khujand scores more
42%

Khujand at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotive Pamir vs Khujand

Khujand beat Lokomotive Pamir 2-0 in Vysshaya Liga on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze in Dushanbe.