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Khujand vs Lokomotive Pamir — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Khujand
Khujand
FT
0 – 0
Lokomotive Pamir
Lokomotive Pamir
8/12/2020Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 11Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Khujand57%
×Draw29%
Lokomotive Pamir14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khujand
1.32
Lokomotive Pamir
0.51

Khujand creates 159% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 9 away

creates per match

Khujand
1.64
Lokomotive Pamir
0.11

allows per match

Khujand
0.90
Lokomotive Pamir
1.00

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par
Lokomotive Pamir+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Lokomotive Pamir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Khujand or draw
86%
Khujand or Lokomotive Pamir
71%
Draw or Lokomotive Pamir
43%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+
28%
Lokomotive Pamir wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals
73%
Khujand 2+ goals
38%
Khujand 3+ goals
15%
Lokomotive Pamir 1+ goals
40%
Lokomotive Pamir 2+ goals
9%
Lokomotive Pamir 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)
80%
Lokomotive Pamir (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.90 · 98 matches

Lokomotive Pamir away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 1.64 + Lokomotive Pamir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Lokomotive Pamir attack 0.11 + Khujand defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Khujand scores more
57%
level
29%
Lokomotive Pamir scores more
14%

Khujand at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khujand vs Lokomotive Pamir

Khujand and Lokomotive Pamir drew 0-0 in Vysshaya Liga on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti in Khujand.