Lokomotive Pamir 0–3 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Lokomotive Pamir

FT

0 – 3

Istiqlol

8/8/2020

Vysshaya Liga · Round 10Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lokomotive Pamir17%

×Draw20%

Istiqlol64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotive PamirExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

2.21

Lokomotive Pamir

1.03

Istiqlol

2.21

Istiqlol creates 115% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 100 away

1.44

creates per match

2.52

1.89

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Lokomotive Pamir

1.44

Istiqlol

2.52

allows per match

Lokomotive Pamir

1.89

Istiqlol

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotive Pamir+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotive Pamir ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Lokomotive Pamir or draw

36%

Lokomotive Pamir or Istiqlol

80%

Draw or Istiqlol

83%

Winning margin

Lokomotive Pamir wins by 2+

6%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Lokomotive Pamir 1+ goals

64%

Lokomotive Pamir 2+ goals

28%

Lokomotive Pamir 3+ goals

9%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

89%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

65%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Lokomotive Pamir (draw refunded)

21%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotive Pamir at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 2.52, concedes 0.63 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotive Pamir attack 1.44 + Istiqlol defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.03

Istiqlol attack 2.52 + Lokomotive Pamir defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lokomotive Pamir scores more

17%

level

20%

Istiqlol scores more

64%

Istiqlol at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff