Istiqlol 1–0 Lokomotive Pamir: Result & Stats

Istiqlol

FT

1 – 0

Lokomotive Pamir

7/12/2020

Vysshaya Liga · Round 9Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Istiqlol79%

×Draw16%

Lokomotive Pamir5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstiqlolExpected goals in this matchLokomotive Pamir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.32

Istiqlol

2.10

Lokomotive Pamir

0.32

Istiqlol creates 556% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 9 away

3.20

creates per match

0.11

0.53

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Istiqlol

3.20

Lokomotive Pamir

0.11

allows per match

Istiqlol

0.53

Lokomotive Pamir

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Lokomotive Pamir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No76
Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Lokomotive Pamir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–13%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–020%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (20%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw

95%

Istiqlol or Lokomotive Pamir

84%

Draw or Lokomotive Pamir

21%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+

54%

Lokomotive Pamir wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals

88%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

62%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

35%

Lokomotive Pamir 1+ goals

27%

Lokomotive Pamir 2+ goals

4%

Lokomotive Pamir 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

95%

Lokomotive Pamir (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

Lokomotive Pamir away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 3.20 + Lokomotive Pamir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Lokomotive Pamir attack 0.11 + Istiqlol defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Istiqlol scores more

79%

level

16%

Lokomotive Pamir scores more

5%

Istiqlol at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff