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Lokomotive Pamir vs Dushanbe-83 — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Lokomotive Pamir
Lokomotive Pamir
FT
1 – 0
Dushanbe-83
Dushanbe-83
4/11/2020Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 2Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lokomotive Pamir52%
×Draw22%
Dushanbe-8326%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotive Pamir
1.93
Dushanbe-83
1.31

Lokomotive Pamir creates 47% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 22 away

creates per match

Lokomotive Pamir
1.44
Dushanbe-83
0.73

allows per match

Lokomotive Pamir
1.89
Dushanbe-83
2.41

finishing

Lokomotive Pamir+0.00on par
Dushanbe-83+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotive Pamir ↓

Dushanbe-83 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lokomotive Pamir or draw
74%
Lokomotive Pamir or Dushanbe-83
78%
Draw or Dushanbe-83
48%

Winning margin

Lokomotive Pamir wins by 2+
30%
Dushanbe-83 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lokomotive Pamir 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotive Pamir 2+ goals
57%
Lokomotive Pamir 3+ goals
30%
Dushanbe-83 1+ goals
73%
Dushanbe-83 2+ goals
38%
Dushanbe-83 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lokomotive Pamir (draw refunded)
67%
Dushanbe-83 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotive Pamir at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Dushanbe-83 away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotive Pamir attack 1.44 + Dushanbe-83 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.93

Dushanbe-83 attack 0.73 + Lokomotive Pamir defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lokomotive Pamir scores more
52%
level
22%
Dushanbe-83 scores more
26%

Lokomotive Pamir at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lokomotive Pamir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Lokomotive Pamir 1–0 Dushanbe-83

Lokomotive Pamir beat Dushanbe-83 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on April 11, 2020.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze in Dushanbe.