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Dushanbe-83 vs Lokomotive Pamir — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Dushanbe-83
Dushanbe-83
FT
1 – 0
Lokomotive Pamir
Lokomotive Pamir
I. Kholov 17' (OG)
9/27/2020Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 17Tsentral'nyy Stadion Vakhdat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dushanbe-8337%
×Draw30%
Lokomotive Pamir33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dushanbe-83
1.08
Lokomotive Pamir
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dushanbe-83
1.17
Lokomotive Pamir
0.11

allows per match

Dushanbe-83
1.87
Lokomotive Pamir
1.00

finishing

Dushanbe-83+0.00on par
Lokomotive Pamir+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dushanbe-83 ↓

Lokomotive Pamir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dushanbe-83 or draw
67%
Dushanbe-83 or Lokomotive Pamir
70%
Draw or Lokomotive Pamir
63%

Winning margin

Dushanbe-83 wins by 2+
15%
Lokomotive Pamir wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dushanbe-83 1+ goals
66%
Dushanbe-83 2+ goals
29%
Dushanbe-83 3+ goals
10%
Lokomotive Pamir 1+ goals
63%
Lokomotive Pamir 2+ goals
26%
Lokomotive Pamir 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dushanbe-83 (draw refunded)
53%
Lokomotive Pamir (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dushanbe-83 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Lokomotive Pamir away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dushanbe-83 attack 1.17 + Lokomotive Pamir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Lokomotive Pamir attack 0.11 + Dushanbe-83 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dushanbe-83 scores more
37%
level
30%
Lokomotive Pamir scores more
33%

Dushanbe-83 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dushanbe-83 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
I. KholovOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dushanbe-83 vs Lokomotive Pamir

Dushanbe-83 beat Lokomotive Pamir 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on September 27, 2020.

Goals: I. Kholov (17' o.g.).

The match was played at Tsentral'nyy Stadion Vakhdat in Vahdat.