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Lokomotive Pamir vs CSKA Pomir — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Lokomotive Pamir
Lokomotive Pamir
FT
3 – 2
CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
9/19/2020Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 16Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lokomotive Pamir32%
×Draw25%
CSKA Pomir43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotive Pamir
1.25
CSKA Pomir
1.50

CSKA Pomir creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 94 away

creates per match

Lokomotive Pamir
1.44
CSKA Pomir
1.12

allows per match

Lokomotive Pamir
1.89
CSKA Pomir
1.07

finishing

Lokomotive Pamir+0.00on par
CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotive Pamir ↓

CSKA Pomir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotive Pamir or draw
57%
Lokomotive Pamir or CSKA Pomir
75%
Draw or CSKA Pomir
68%

Winning margin

Lokomotive Pamir wins by 2+
13%
CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Lokomotive Pamir 1+ goals
71%
Lokomotive Pamir 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotive Pamir 3+ goals
13%
CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
78%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
44%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lokomotive Pamir (draw refunded)
42%
CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotive Pamir at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.07 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotive Pamir attack 1.44 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

CSKA Pomir attack 1.12 + Lokomotive Pamir defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lokomotive Pamir scores more
32%
level
25%
CSKA Pomir scores more
43%

CSKA Pomir at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Lokomotive Pamir 3–2 CSKA Pomir

Lokomotive Pamir beat CSKA Pomir 3-2 in Vysshaya Liga on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Neftyanik in Rudaki.