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CSKA Pomir vs Lokomotive Pamir — Vysshaya Liga 2019

CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
FT
3 – 1
Lokomotive Pamir
Lokomotive Pamir
4/19/2020Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 3Hisor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

CSKA Pomir50%
×Draw30%
Lokomotive Pamir19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Pomir
1.22
Lokomotive Pamir
0.64

CSKA Pomir creates 91% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 9 away

creates per match

CSKA Pomir
1.44
Lokomotive Pamir
0.11

allows per match

CSKA Pomir
1.17
Lokomotive Pamir
1.00

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par
Lokomotive Pamir+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Lokomotive Pamir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw
81%
CSKA Pomir or Lokomotive Pamir
70%
Draw or Lokomotive Pamir
50%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
23%
Lokomotive Pamir wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
70%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
34%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
12%
Lokomotive Pamir 1+ goals
47%
Lokomotive Pamir 2+ goals
14%
Lokomotive Pamir 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
72%
Lokomotive Pamir (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.17 · 99 matches

Lokomotive Pamir away — creates 0.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 1.44 + Lokomotive Pamir defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Lokomotive Pamir attack 0.11 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more
50%
level
30%
Lokomotive Pamir scores more
19%

CSKA Pomir at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Pomir vs Lokomotive Pamir

CSKA Pomir beat Lokomotive Pamir 3-1 in Vysshaya Liga on April 19, 2020.

The match was played at Hisor Central Stadium in Gissar.