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Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Zlaté Moravce — 2. liga 2019

Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zlaté Moravce
Zlaté Moravce
5/16/20252. liga2. liga · Round 26Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen36%
×Draw25%
Zlaté Moravce39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.40
Zlaté Moravce
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.47
Zlaté Moravce
1.57

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.37
Zlaté Moravce
1.32

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par
Zlaté Moravce+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Zlaté Moravce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw
61%
Lokomotíva Zvolen or Zlaté Moravce
75%
Draw or Zlaté Moravce
64%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
16%
Zlaté Moravce wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
75%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
41%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
17%
Zlaté Moravce 1+ goals
77%
Zlaté Moravce 2+ goals
43%
Zlaté Moravce 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
48%
Zlaté Moravce (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Zlaté Moravce away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.47 + Zlaté Moravce defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Zlaté Moravce attack 1.57 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
36%
level
25%
Zlaté Moravce scores more
39%

Zlaté Moravce at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zlaté Moravce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Zlaté Moravce

Lokomotíva Zvolen beat Zlaté Moravce 1-0 in 2. liga on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen in Zvolen.