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Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Dukla Banská Bystrica — 2. liga 2019

Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
3/28/20262. liga2. liga · Round 22Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen30%
×Draw25%
Dukla Banská Bystrica45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.26
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.60

Dukla Banská Bystrica creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 55 away

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.47
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.82

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.37
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.05

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw
55%
Lokomotíva Zvolen or Dukla Banská Bystrica
75%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica
70%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
13%
Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
72%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
13%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
80%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
47%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
40%
Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.47 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.26

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.82 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
30%
level
25%
Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
45%

Dukla Banská Bystrica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Dukla Banská Bystrica

Lokomotíva Zvolen and Dukla Banská Bystrica drew 1-1 in 2. liga on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen in Zvolen.