Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–1 Lokomotíva Zvolen

Dukla Banská Bystrica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lokomotíva Zvolen

9/5/2025

2. liga · Round 7Štadión SNP Štiavničky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica60%

×Draw21%

Lokomotíva Zvolen19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Banská BystricaExpected goals in this matchLokomotíva Zvolen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.08

Dukla Banská Bystrica

2.06

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.08

Dukla Banská Bystrica creates 91% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 30 away

2.65

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

2.65

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.17

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.00

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw

81%

Dukla Banská Bystrica or Lokomotíva Zvolen

79%

Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen

40%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+

36%

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals

87%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals

61%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals

34%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals

66%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals

29%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)

76%

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.00 · 55 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 2.65 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.06

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.17 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more

60%

level

21%

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more

19%

Dukla Banská Bystrica at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff