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Lokomotíva Košice vs Partizán Bardejov — 2. liga 2019

Lokomotíva Košice
Lokomotíva Košice
FT
2 – 1
Partizán Bardejov
Partizán Bardejov
5/25/20192. liga2. liga · Round 30Štadión Družstevná pri Hornáde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lokomotíva Košice75%
×Draw16%
Partizán Bardejov9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotíva Košice
2.43
Partizán Bardejov
0.72

Lokomotíva Košice creates 238% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 39 away

creates per match

Lokomotíva Košice
2.83
Partizán Bardejov
0.77

allows per match

Lokomotíva Košice
0.67
Partizán Bardejov
2.03

finishing

Lokomotíva Košice+0.00on par
Partizán Bardejov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Košice ↓

Partizán Bardejov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Košice or draw
91%
Lokomotíva Košice or Partizán Bardejov
84%
Draw or Partizán Bardejov
25%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Košice wins by 2+
52%
Partizán Bardejov wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Košice 1+ goals
91%
Lokomotíva Košice 2+ goals
69%
Lokomotíva Košice 3+ goals
43%
Partizán Bardejov 1+ goals
51%
Partizán Bardejov 2+ goals
16%
Partizán Bardejov 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Košice (draw refunded)
89%
Partizán Bardejov (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Košice at home — creates 2.83, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Partizán Bardejov away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.03 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Košice attack 2.83 + Partizán Bardejov defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.43

Partizán Bardejov attack 0.77 + Lokomotíva Košice defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Lokomotíva Košice scores more
75%
level
16%
Partizán Bardejov scores more
9%

Lokomotíva Košice at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Lokomotíva Košice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotíva Košice vs Partizán Bardejov

Lokomotíva Košice beat Partizán Bardejov 2-1 in 2. liga on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Štadión Družstevná pri Hornáde in Družstevná pri Hornáde.