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Lokomotiv vs Pakhtakor — Super League 2026

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
Preview
16:00
Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
11/20/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Lokomotiv Stadium
Big match
43%
Pakhtakor
model favours
31%26%43%

Pakhtakor have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Lokomotiv31%
×Draw26%
Pakhtakor43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.22
Pakhtakor
1.49

Pakhtakor creates 22% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 99 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
1.55
Pakhtakor
1.85

allows per match

Lokomotiv
1.13
Pakhtakor
0.88

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Pakhtakor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
57%
Lokomotiv or Pakhtakor
74%
Draw or Pakhtakor
69%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
13%
Pakhtakor wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
70%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
34%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
12%
Pakhtakor 1+ goals
77%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
44%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
42%
Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.88 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.55 + Pakhtakor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.22

Pakhtakor attack 1.85 + Lokomotiv defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
31%
level
26%
Pakhtakor scores more
43%

Pakhtakor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Lokomotiv win just 19% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • Pakhtakor win just 51% against the top half (vs 76% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Lokomotiv
DDWLW
Pakhtakor
WDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lokomotiv host Pakhtakor

November 20, 2026: Lokomotiv take on Pakhtakor in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lokomotiv host Pakhtakor at Lokomotiv Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.