Lokomotiv 0–1 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pakhtakor

I. Sergeev 38'

11/29/2020

Super League · Round 25Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Lokomotiv31%

×Draw26%

Pakhtakor43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.49

Lokomotiv

1.22

Pakhtakor

1.49

Pakhtakor creates 22% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 99 away

1.55

creates per match

1.85

1.13

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Lokomotiv

1.55

Pakhtakor

1.85

allows per match

Lokomotiv

1.13

Pakhtakor

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

57%

Lokomotiv or Pakhtakor

74%

Draw or Pakhtakor

69%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

13%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

70%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

34%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

12%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

77%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

44%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

42%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.88 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.55 + Pakhtakor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.22

Pakhtakor attack 1.85 + Lokomotiv defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

31%

level

26%

Pakhtakor scores more

43%

Pakhtakor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

I. Sergeev

63'

D. Komilov← F. Ibragimov

63'

D. Turopov← J. Alijanov

69'

A. Ulmasaliev← V. Afonin

69'

M. Bikmaev← K. Pogrebnyak

76'

K. Erkinov← D. Ćeran

76'

S. Abdullaev← S. Sobirkhujaev

80'

J. Abdumuminov← S. Mukhammadiyev

86'

S. Azamov← D. Khamdamov

Lokomotiv

Pakhtakor

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Nuraliev

63'▲D. Komilov←▼F. Ibragimov

63'▲D. Turopov←▼J. Alijanov

69'▲A. Ulmasaliev←▼V. Afonin

69'▲M. Bikmaev←▼K. Pogrebnyak

80'▲J. Abdumuminov←▼S. Mukhammadiyev

Lokomotiv substitutes

KomilovTuropovUlmasalievBikmaevAbdumuminovNartadjievAbramovKilichevShaymanov

Manager: S. Arveladze

76'▲K. Erkinov←▼D. Ćeran

76'▲S. Abdullaev←▼S. Sobirkhujaev

86'▲S. Azamov←▼D. Khamdamov

Pakhtakor substitutes

ErkinovAbdullaevAzamovSobirjonovKholmatovDerdiyokSuyunovSidikov