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Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
Preview
17:45
Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
9/16/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9RZD Arena
Big match
54%
Lokomotiv
model favours
54%24%22%

Krylia Sovetov win just 17% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Lokomotiv54%
×Draw24%
Krylia Sovetov22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.75
Krylia Sovetov
1.02

Lokomotiv creates 72% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 105 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
1.69
Krylia Sovetov
1.02

allows per match

Lokomotiv
1.02
Krylia Sovetov
1.81

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Krylia Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
78%
Lokomotiv or Krylia Sovetov
76%
Draw or Krylia Sovetov
46%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
30%
Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
83%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
52%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
25%
Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
64%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
27%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
71%
Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.81 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.69 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.75

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 + Lokomotiv defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
54%
level
24%
Krylia Sovetov scores more
22%

Lokomotiv at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Krylia Sovetov fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Lokomotiv
Attack-heavy
Krylia Sovetov
Balanced
49%Possession48%
77%Pass accuracy77%
15.3Shots10.8
2.23xGBiggest gap1.39
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LokomotivKrylia Sovetov

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Lokomotiv
6
Draws
2
Krylia Sovetov
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 70%
0–22–22–21–51–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Lokomotiv
WWWWW
Sovetov
LLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lokomotiv host Krylia Sovetov

September 16, 2026: Lokomotiv take on Krylia Sovetov in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lokomotiv host Krylia Sovetov at RZD Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.