Krylia Sovetov 5–1 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

Krylia Sovetov

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Lokomotiv

I. Sergeev 49', 4'

G. Bijl 40'

I. Oleynikov 32'

D. Oroz 2'

G. Bijl 62' (OG)

3/28/2025

Premier League · Round 22Solidarnost Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Krylia Sovetov38%

×Draw26%

Lokomotiv36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylia SovetovExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.34

Krylia Sovetov

1.37

Lokomotiv

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 120 away

1.31

creates per match

1.52

1.17

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.31

Lokomotiv

1.52

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.17

Lokomotiv

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw

64%

Krylia Sovetov or Lokomotiv

74%

Draw or Lokomotiv

62%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

17%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

75%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

40%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

16%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

74%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

39%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

51%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.31 + Lokomotiv defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Lokomotiv attack 1.52 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more

38%

level

26%

Lokomotiv scores more

36%

Krylia Sovetov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

I. Sergeev

Krylia Sovetov · F

9.9

Match Events

2'

D. Oroz

4'

I. Sergeev↳ R. Ezhov

31'

Artem Karpukas

32'

I. Oleynikov↳ N. Rasskazov

40'

G. Bijl↳ I. Sergeev

43'

Lucas Fasson

46'

V. Rakov← M. Nenakhov

46'

T. Suleymanov← A. Karpukas

46'

V. Sarveli← N. Tiknizyan

49'

I. Sergeev↳ Fernando Costanza

59'

D. Godyaev← A. Timofeev

59'

E. Sevikyan← D. Vorobyev

62'

G. BijlOwn goal

72'

V. Shitov← N. Rasskazov

72'

L. Gagnidze← S. Babkin

75'

Fernando Costanza

78'

A. Zinkovskiy← R. Ezhov

78'

K. Pechenin← T. Galdames

84'

U. Babaev← I. Oleynikov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KryliaLokomotiv

Overview

39%Possession61%

19Total Shots14

5Corners3

11Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots14

13On Target4

4Off Target4

2Blocked6

17Inside Box8

2Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

363Total Passes561

268Accurate Passes473

74%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0