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Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
10/6/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Lokomotiv54%
×Draw24%
Krylia Sovetov22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.74
Krylia Sovetov
1.02

Lokomotiv creates 71% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 106 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
1.69
Krylia Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

Lokomotiv
1.02
Krylia Sovetov
1.79

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Krylia Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
78%
Lokomotiv or Krylia Sovetov
76%
Draw or Krylia Sovetov
46%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
30%
Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
82%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
52%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
25%
Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
64%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
27%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
71%
Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.69 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.74

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.03 + Lokomotiv defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
54%
level
24%
Krylia Sovetov scores more
22%

Lokomotiv at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov

Lokomotiv beat Krylia Sovetov 1-0 in Premier League on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moskva.