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Lokomotiv vs Khimki — Cup 2019

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Khimki
Khimki
8/28/2024CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 3RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lokomotiv56%
×Draw23%
Khimki21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.77
Khimki
0.97

Lokomotiv creates 82% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
2.00
Khimki
1.00

allows per match

Lokomotiv
0.95
Khimki
1.54

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
79%
Lokomotiv or Khimki
77%
Draw or Khimki
44%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
32%
Khimki wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
83%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
53%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
26%
Khimki 1+ goals
62%
Khimki 2+ goals
25%
Khimki 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
73%
Khimki (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 2.00 + Khimki defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

Khimki attack 1.00 + Lokomotiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
56%
level
23%
Khimki scores more
21%

Lokomotiv at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv vs Khimki

Lokomotiv beat Khimki 4-0 in Cup on August 28, 2024.

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moskva.