Khimki 2–0 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

Khimki

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lokomotiv

Z. Bakaev 60', 54'

10/19/2024

Premier League · Round 12Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Khimki35%

×Draw26%

Lokomotiv39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.41

Khimki

1.33

Lokomotiv

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 120 away

1.23

creates per match

1.52

1.30

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Khimki

1.23

Lokomotiv

1.52

allows per match

Khimki

1.30

Lokomotiv

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

61%

Khimki or Lokomotiv

74%

Draw or Lokomotiv

65%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

16%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

74%

Khimki 2+ goals

38%

Khimki 3+ goals

15%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

76%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

41%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

48%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.23 + Lokomotiv defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lokomotiv attack 1.52 + Khimki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khimki scores more

35%

level

26%

Lokomotiv scores more

39%

Lokomotiv at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Z. Bakaev

Khimki · M

8.2

Match Events

31'

35'

47'

54'

57'

E. Sevikyan← M. Nenakhov

57'

N. Tiknizyan← S. Pinyaev

57'

T. Suleymanov← D. Vorobyev

60'

Z. Bakaev

62'

V. Sarveli← A. Karpukas

63'

Ilya Samoshnikov

76'

N. Saltykov← A. Batrakov

77'

S. Terekhov← R. Mirzov

85'

Álex Corredera← L. Vera

85'

I. Berkovskiy← Z. Bakaev

90+3'

D. Stepanov← Orinho

90+3'

K. Panchenko← A. Zabolotny

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KhimkiLokomotiv

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots18

3Corners11

12Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots18

4On Target1

4Off Target9

2Blocked8

5Inside Box11

5Outside Box7

Passing

37%Possession63%

293Total Passes479

201Accurate Passes386

69%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1