Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lokomotiv vs Ararat-Armenia II — First League 2019

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
CANC
14:00
Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
7/7/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 31RCCSD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lokomotiv65%
×Draw19%
Ararat-Armenia II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
2.25
Ararat-Armenia II
1.02

Lokomotiv creates 121% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 99 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
2.64
Ararat-Armenia II
1.48

allows per match

Lokomotiv
0.57
Ararat-Armenia II
1.86

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Ararat-Armenia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
84%
Lokomotiv or Ararat-Armenia II
81%
Draw or Ararat-Armenia II
35%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
42%
Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
89%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
39%
Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals
64%
Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals
27%
Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
80%
Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Ararat-Armenia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 2.64 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.25

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.48 + Lokomotiv defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
65%
level
19%
Ararat-Armenia II scores more
16%

Lokomotiv at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lokomotiv vs Ararat-Armenia II — Match Preview

Lokomotiv face Ararat-Armenia II on July 7, 2020 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lokomotiv host Ararat-Armenia II at RCCSD Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.