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Ararat-Armenia II vs Lokomotiv — First League 2019

Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
FT
1 – 3
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
11/5/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ararat-Armenia II23%
×Draw19%
Lokomotiv58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat-Armenia II
1.48
Lokomotiv
2.41

Lokomotiv creates 63% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ararat-Armenia II
1.80
Lokomotiv
3.00

allows per match

Ararat-Armenia II
1.82
Lokomotiv
1.15

finishing

Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat-Armenia II ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Ararat-Armenia II or draw
42%
Ararat-Armenia II or Lokomotiv
81%
Draw or Lokomotiv
77%

Winning margin

Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+
10%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals
77%
Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals
43%
Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals
19%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
91%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
69%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)
29%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat-Armenia II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.82 · 98 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.80 + Lokomotiv defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lokomotiv attack 3.00 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ararat-Armenia II scores more
23%
level
19%
Lokomotiv scores more
58%

Lokomotiv at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ararat-Armenia II vs Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv beat Ararat-Armenia II 3-1 in First League on November 5, 2019.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.