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Lokomotiv vs Al-Rayyan SC — AFC Champions League 2018

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Al-Rayyan SC
Al-Rayyan SC
5/21/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6Lokomotiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotiv53%
×Draw23%
Al-Rayyan SC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.82
Al-Rayyan SC
1.14

Lokomotiv creates 60% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
1.86
Al-Rayyan SC
1.28

allows per match

Lokomotiv
1.00
Al-Rayyan SC
1.78

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Al-Rayyan SC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Al-Rayyan SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
76%
Lokomotiv or Al-Rayyan SC
77%
Draw or Al-Rayyan SC
47%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
30%
Al-Rayyan SC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
84%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
54%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
27%
Al-Rayyan SC 1+ goals
68%
Al-Rayyan SC 2+ goals
32%
Al-Rayyan SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
69%
Al-Rayyan SC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Al-Rayyan SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.86 + Al-Rayyan SC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.82

Al-Rayyan SC attack 1.28 + Lokomotiv defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
53%
level
23%
Al-Rayyan SC scores more
24%

Lokomotiv at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Lokomotiv 3–2 Al-Rayyan SC

Lokomotiv beat Al-Rayyan SC 3-2 in AFC Champions League on May 21, 2019.

The match was played at Lokomotiv Stadium in Tashkent.