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Al-Rayyan SC vs Lokomotiv — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Rayyan SC
Al-Rayyan SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
3/11/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al-Rayyan SC38%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Rayyan SC
1.77
Lokomotiv
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Al-Rayyan SC
1.20
Lokomotiv
1.67

allows per match

Al-Rayyan SC
1.95
Lokomotiv
2.33

finishing

Al-Rayyan SC+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Rayyan SC ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Al-Rayyan SC or draw
60%
Al-Rayyan SC or Lokomotiv
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv
62%

Winning margin

Al-Rayyan SC wins by 2+
20%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al-Rayyan SC 1+ goals
83%
Al-Rayyan SC 2+ goals
53%
Al-Rayyan SC 3+ goals
26%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
84%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
54%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Al-Rayyan SC (draw refunded)
49%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Rayyan SC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Rayyan SC attack 1.20 + Lokomotiv defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lokomotiv attack 1.67 + Al-Rayyan SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Rayyan SC scores more
38%
level
22%
Lokomotiv scores more
40%

Lokomotiv at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Rayyan SC vs Lokomotiv

Al-Rayyan SC beat Lokomotiv 2-1 in AFC Champions League on March 11, 2019.

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.