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Lokomotiv vs Al-Ittihad FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
4/22/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Lokomotiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotiv48%
×Draw23%
Al-Ittihad FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.77
Al-Ittihad FC
1.30

Lokomotiv creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
1.86
Al-Ittihad FC
1.60

allows per match

Lokomotiv
1.00
Al-Ittihad FC
1.67

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Al-Ittihad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
72%
Lokomotiv or Al-Ittihad FC
77%
Draw or Al-Ittihad FC
52%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
26%
Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
83%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
53%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
26%
Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
73%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
37%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
63%
Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.86 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.60 + Lokomotiv defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
48%
level
23%
Al-Ittihad FC scores more
28%

Lokomotiv at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv vs Al-Ittihad FC

Lokomotiv and Al-Ittihad FC drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on April 22, 2019.

The match was played at Lokomotiv Stadium in Tashkent.