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Al-Ittihad FC vs Lokomotiv — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
4/9/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC62%
×Draw19%
Lokomotiv18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ittihad FC
2.30
Lokomotiv
1.17

Al-Ittihad FC creates 97% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC
2.27
Lokomotiv
1.67

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC
0.67
Lokomotiv
2.33

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw
82%
Al-Ittihad FC or Lokomotiv
81%
Draw or Lokomotiv
38%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
40%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
90%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
67%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
40%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
69%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
33%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
77%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 2.27 + Lokomotiv defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.30

Lokomotiv attack 1.67 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more
62%
level
19%
Lokomotiv scores more
18%

Al-Ittihad FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Al-Ittihad FC 3–2 Lokomotiv

Al-Ittihad FC beat Lokomotiv 3-2 in AFC Champions League on April 9, 2019.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.