Lokomotiv Sofia vs Levski Sofia

Lokomotiv Sofia

Preview

18:15

Levski Sofia

7/25/2026

First League · Round 2Stadion Lokomotiv

Big match

43%

Levski Sofia

model favours

29%28%43%

Levski Sofia are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

0–1

likely score

60%

under 2.5 goals

46%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia29%

×Draw28%

Levski Sofia43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv SofiaExpected goals in this matchLevski Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.30

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.00

Levski Sofia

1.30

Levski Sofia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

1.37

creates per match

1.41

1.19

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.37

Levski Sofia

1.41

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.19

Levski Sofia

0.62

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.10scores more

Levski Sofia+0.45scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Levski Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw

57%

Lokomotiv Sofia or Levski Sofia

72%

Draw or Levski Sofia

71%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+

11%

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals

63%

Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals

26%

Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals

8%

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

73%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

37%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)

40%

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.19 · 17 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.62 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.37 + Levski Sofia defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.00

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more

29%

level

28%

Levski Sofia scores more

43%

Levski Sofia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Levski Sofia have scored in 7 games running
Levski Sofia have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
Both teams score in only 32% of Levski Sofia’s matches
Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.9 goals
33% of Levski Sofia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Lokomotiv Sofia

Balanced

Levski Sofia

Possession-dominant

48%Possession59%

78%Pass accuracy84%

9.8Shots13.8

1.19xGBiggest gap1.76

Lokomotiv SofiaLevski Sofia

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1

Lokomotiv Sofia

1

Draws

8

Levski Sofia

Avg goals: 3.9BTTS: 60%

3–41–20–21–62–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Sofia

DDDW

Sofia

WWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff