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Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia — First League 2026

Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
3/1/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Levski Sofia55%
×Draw25%
Lokomotiv Sofia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Sofia
1.63
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.87

Levski Sofia creates 87% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 88 away

creates per match

Levski Sofia
1.66
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.98

allows per match

Levski Sofia
0.76
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.60

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Lokomotiv Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw
80%
Levski Sofia or Lokomotiv Sofia
75%
Draw or Lokomotiv Sofia
45%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+
30%
Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals
80%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
48%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
22%
Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
58%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
22%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
73%
Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.76 · 137 matches

Lokomotiv Sofia away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.60 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 1.66 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 0.98 + Levski Sofia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Levski Sofia scores more
55%
level
25%
Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
20%

Levski Sofia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Levski Sofia 4–3 Lokomotiv Sofia

Levski Sofia beat Lokomotiv Sofia 4-3 in First League on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov in Sofia.