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Lokomotiv Sofia vs Levski Sofia — First League 2026

Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
9/14/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia29%
×Draw28%
Levski Sofia43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.04
Levski Sofia
1.33

Levski Sofia creates 28% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 138 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.15
Levski Sofia
1.41

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.25
Levski Sofia
0.93

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par
Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Levski Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw
57%
Lokomotiv Sofia or Levski Sofia
72%
Draw or Levski Sofia
71%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
11%
Levski Sofia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
9%
Levski Sofia 1+ goals
74%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
38%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
40%
Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.15 + Levski Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
29%
level
28%
Levski Sofia scores more
43%

Levski Sofia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 Levski Sofia

Levski Sofia beat Lokomotiv Sofia 2-1 in First League on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Sofia.