Lokomotiv Sofia vs Kariana Erden

Lokomotiv Sofia

CANC

15:00

Kariana Erden

4/3/2021

Second League · Round 25Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia52%

×Draw26%

Kariana Erden23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv SofiaExpected goals in this matchKariana Erden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.94

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.55

Kariana Erden

0.94

Lokomotiv Sofia creates 65% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 32 away

1.70

creates per match

1.09

0.78

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.70

Kariana Erden

1.09

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

0.78

Kariana Erden

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Kariana Erden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw

77%

Lokomotiv Sofia or Kariana Erden

74%

Draw or Kariana Erden

48%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+

27%

Kariana Erden wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals

79%

Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals

46%

Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals

20%

Kariana Erden 1+ goals

61%

Kariana Erden 2+ goals

24%

Kariana Erden 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)

69%

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.78 · 40 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.70 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.55

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more

52%

level

26%

Kariana Erden scores more

23%

Lokomotiv Sofia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lokomotiv Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff