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Kariana Erden vs Lokomotiv Sofia — Second League 2018

Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
9/25/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 8Stadion Kariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kariana Erden41%
×Draw27%
Lokomotiv Sofia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariana Erden
1.35
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.16

Kariana Erden creates 16% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 41 away

creates per match

Kariana Erden
1.61
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.37

allows per match

Kariana Erden
0.94
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.10

finishing

Kariana Erden+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariana Erden ↓

Lokomotiv Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kariana Erden or draw
68%
Kariana Erden or Lokomotiv Sofia
73%
Draw or Lokomotiv Sofia
59%

Winning margin

Kariana Erden wins by 2+
19%
Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kariana Erden 1+ goals
74%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
39%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
15%
Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
69%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
32%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
56%
Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariana Erden at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Lokomotiv Sofia away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariana Erden attack 1.61 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.37 + Kariana Erden defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kariana Erden scores more
41%
level
27%
Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
32%

Kariana Erden at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kariana Erden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Kariana Erden 3–2 Lokomotiv Sofia

Kariana Erden beat Lokomotiv Sofia 3-2 in Second League on September 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kariana in Erden.