Lokomotiv Sofia 3–1 Dobrudzha: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Sofia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dobrudzha

Caue Caruzo 90'

R. Bidounga 51'

D. Yankov 40'

R. Bidounga 82' (OG)

3/5/2026

First League · Round 24Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia47%

×Draw28%

Dobrudzha25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv SofiaExpected goals in this matchDobrudzha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.86

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.31

Dobrudzha

0.86

Lokomotiv Sofia creates 52% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 19 away

1.15

creates per match

0.47

1.25

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.15

Dobrudzha

0.47

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.25

Dobrudzha

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Dobrudzha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw

75%

Lokomotiv Sofia or Dobrudzha

72%

Draw or Dobrudzha

53%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+

22%

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals

73%

Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals

38%

Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals

14%

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

58%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

21%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)

66%

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.15 + Dobrudzha defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dobrudzha attack 0.47 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more

47%

level

28%

Dobrudzha scores more

25%

Lokomotiv Sofia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lokomotiv Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

R. Bidounga

Lokomotiv Sofia · D

8.0

Match Events

33'

Valdu Te

37'

Krasimir Stanoev

40'

D. Yankov↳ S. Delev

46'

D. Pirgov← A. Ramadan

51'

R. Bidounga↳ K. Stanoev

62'

A. Taoui← S. Delev

63'

Luann← D. Yankov

63'

B. Katsarov← E. Dost

68'

M. Fall← D. Madaleno

70'

G. Minchev← A. Aralica

70'

K. Miloshev← R. Daskalov

77'

A. Angelov← A. Ivanov

78'

D. Hasan← Matheus Leoni

81'

G. Argilashki← G. Grigorov

82'

R. BidoungaOwn goal

85'

Bozhidar Katsarov

90'

Caue Caruzo↳ A. Lyubenov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LokomotivDobrudzha

Overview

66%Possession34%

15Total Shots5

1.91Expected Goals (xG)0.24

7Corners2

15Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots5

7On Target1

5Off Target2

3Blocked2

11Inside Box2

4Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

461Total Passes198

379Accurate Passes137

82%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0