Dobrudzha 0–3 Lokomotiv Sofia: Result & Stats

Dobrudzha

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Lokomotiv Sofia

A. Aleksandrov 54', 4'

S. Dikov 45'

9/10/2020

Second League · Round 6Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Dobrudzha40%

×Draw28%

Lokomotiv Sofia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobrudzhaExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.13

Dobrudzha

1.27

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.13

Dobrudzha creates 12% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 41 away

1.43

creates per match

1.37

0.89

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Dobrudzha

1.43

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.37

allows per match

Dobrudzha

0.89

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Lokomotiv Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw

67%

Dobrudzha or Lokomotiv Sofia

72%

Draw or Lokomotiv Sofia

60%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

18%

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

72%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

36%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

14%

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals

68%

Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals

31%

Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

55%

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 100 matches

Lokomotiv Sofia away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 1.43 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.37 + Dobrudzha defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dobrudzha scores more

40%

level

28%

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more

33%

Dobrudzha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

A. Aleksandrov

45'

S. Dikov

46'

M. Maksimov← N. Andreev

46'

I. Stefanov← V. Nikolov

54'

A. Aleksandrov

67'

P. Petkov← N. Milev

67'

T. Trayanov← K. Miloshev

73'

D. Stanchev← S. Dikov

77'

P. Slavkov← D. Vasilev

83'

L. Ivanov← V. Semerdzhiev

87'

D. Stoyanov← Stefan Mitev

Dobrudzha

Lokomotiv

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Petrov

46'▲M. Maksimov←▼N. Andreev

77'▲P. Slavkov←▼D. Vasilev

87'▲D. Stoyanov←▼Stefan Mitev

Dobrudzha substitutes

MaksimovSlavkovStoyanovIliev

Manager: I. Kolev

46'▲I. Stefanov←▼V. Nikolov

67'▲P. Petkov←▼N. Milev

67'▲T. Trayanov←▼K. Miloshev

73'▲D. Stanchev←▼S. Dikov

83'▲L. Ivanov←▼V. Semerdzhiev

Lokomotiv Sofia substitutes

StefanovPetkovTrayanovStanchevIvanovDuarteVitkov