Lokomotiv Sofia 2–0 Dobrudzha: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Sofia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dobrudzha

A. Aleksandrov 90+1', 69' (pen)

3/2/2019

Second League · Round 19Stadion Lokomotiv (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Lokomotiv Sofia54%

×Draw26%

Dobrudzha20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv SofiaExpected goals in this matchDobrudzha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.83

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.55

Dobrudzha

0.83

Lokomotiv Sofia creates 87% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 101 away

1.70

creates per match

0.89

0.78

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

1.70

Dobrudzha

0.89

allows per match

Lokomotiv Sofia

0.78

Dobrudzha

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Sofia ↓

Dobrudzha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Sofia or draw

80%

Lokomotiv Sofia or Dobrudzha

74%

Draw or Dobrudzha

46%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+

28%

Dobrudzha wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals

79%

Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals

46%

Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals

20%

Dobrudzha 1+ goals

56%

Dobrudzha 2+ goals

20%

Dobrudzha 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)

73%

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Sofia at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.78 · 40 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 1.70 + Dobrudzha defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Dobrudzha attack 0.89 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lokomotiv Sofia scores more

54%

level

26%

Dobrudzha scores more

20%

Lokomotiv Sofia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lokomotiv Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

K. Peshkov← N. Nikolaev

57'

I. Stefanov← K. Miloshev

69'

A. AleksandrovPenalty

75'

M. Kirilov← V. Tiron

83'

I. Taïder← T. Vachev

85'

R. Krastev← P. Tonchev

87'

A. Goranov← D. Kyamil

90+1'

A. Aleksandrov

Lokomotiv

Dobrudzha

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: M. Dodić

57'▲I. Stefanov←▼K. Miloshev

83'▲I. Taïder←▼T. Vachev

87'▲A. Goranov←▼D. Kyamil

Lokomotiv Sofia substitutes

StefanovTaïderGoranovPunevYordanovVitkovNikolov

Manager: E. Velev

46'▲K. Peshkov←▼N. Nikolaev

75'▲M. Kirilov←▼V. Tiron

85'▲R. Krastev←▼P. Tonchev

Dobrudzha substitutes

PeshkovKirilovKrastevKumanovKadirKolevAngelov

Second League: Lokomotiv Sofia 2–0 Dobrudzha

Lokomotiv Sofia beat Dobrudzha 2-0 in Second League on March 2, 2019.

Goals: A. Aleksandrov (69' pen, 90+1').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv (Sofia).

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Dobrudzha — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League: Lokomotiv Sofia 2–0 Dobrudzha