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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Fratria — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Fratria
Fratria
10/22/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 11Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse14%
×Draw19%
Fratria66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.90
Fratria
2.17

Fratria creates 141% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Fratria
2.23

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Fratria
0.92

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Fratria+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Fratria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
34%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Fratria
81%
Draw or Fratria
86%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
5%
Fratria wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
59%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
23%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
6%
Fratria 1+ goals
89%
Fratria 2+ goals
64%
Fratria 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
18%
Fratria (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Fratria away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Fratria defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Fratria attack 2.23 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
14%
level
19%
Fratria scores more
66%

Fratria at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Ruse vs Fratria

Fratria beat Lokomotiv Ruse 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Rousse.