Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fratria vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Fratria
Fratria
FT
5 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
5/1/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 26Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fratria81%
×Draw12%
Lokomotiv Ruse7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fratria
2.97
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.74

Fratria creates 301% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 52 away

creates per match

Fratria
3.23
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Fratria
0.62
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Fratria+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fratria or draw
93%
Fratria or Lokomotiv Ruse
88%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
19%

Winning margin

Fratria wins by 2+
62%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Fratria 1+ goals
95%
Fratria 2+ goals
79%
Fratria 3+ goals
56%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
52%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
17%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fratria (draw refunded)
93%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria at home — creates 3.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria attack 3.23 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.97

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Fratria defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Fratria scores more
81%
level
12%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
7%

Fratria at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fratria vs Lokomotiv Ruse

Fratria beat Lokomotiv Ruse 5-1 in Third League - Northeast on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Kavarna.