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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Dunav Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
FT
0 – 9
HT: 0 – 4
Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
3/12/2022Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 16Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse16%
×Draw19%
Dunav Ruse64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
1.03
Dunav Ruse
2.24

Dunav Ruse creates 117% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 27 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Dunav Ruse
2.37

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Dunav Ruse
1.19

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Dunav Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
36%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Dunav Ruse
81%
Draw or Dunav Ruse
84%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
6%
Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
64%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
9%
Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
89%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
65%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
20%
Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Dunav Ruse attack 2.37 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
16%
level
19%
Dunav Ruse scores more
64%

Dunav Ruse at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Lokomotiv Ruse 0–9 Dunav Ruse

Dunav Ruse beat Lokomotiv Ruse 9-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Rousse.