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Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
FT
8 – 0
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
9/19/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 3Stadion Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dunav Ruse81%
×Draw12%
Lokomotiv Ruse7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
2.90
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.74

Dunav Ruse creates 292% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 52 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
3.08
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
0.62
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
93%
Dunav Ruse or Lokomotiv Ruse
88%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
19%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
61%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
94%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
78%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
54%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
52%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
17%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
92%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 3.08, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 3.08 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.90

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
81%
level
12%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
7%

Dunav Ruse at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dunav Ruse 8 – 0 Lokomotiv Ruse

Dunav Ruse beat Lokomotiv Ruse 8-0 in Third League - Northeast on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dunav in Rousse.