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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Cherno more II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
FT
0 – 3
Cherno more II
Cherno more II
11/26/2022Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse18%
×Draw21%
Cherno more II61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.96
Cherno more II
1.99

Cherno more II creates 107% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 58 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Cherno more II
1.88

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Cherno more II
1.03

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Cherno more II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Cherno more II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
39%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Cherno more II
79%
Draw or Cherno more II
82%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
6%
Cherno more II wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
62%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
25%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
7%
Cherno more II 1+ goals
86%
Cherno more II 2+ goals
59%
Cherno more II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
22%
Cherno more II (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Cherno more II away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Cherno more II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Cherno more II attack 1.88 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
18%
level
21%
Cherno more II scores more
61%

Cherno more II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cherno more II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Lokomotiv Ruse 0–3 Cherno more II

Cherno more II beat Lokomotiv Ruse 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.