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Cherno more II vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Cherno more II
Cherno more II
FT
1 – 1
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
3/16/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 19Cherno More Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Cherno more II66%
×Draw19%
Lokomotiv Ruse15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno more II
2.29
Lokomotiv Ruse
1.00

Cherno more II creates 129% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 52 away

creates per match

Cherno more II
1.86
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Cherno more II
1.12
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Cherno more II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno more II ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cherno more II or draw
85%
Cherno more II or Lokomotiv Ruse
81%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
34%

Winning margin

Cherno more II wins by 2+
43%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cherno more II 1+ goals
90%
Cherno more II 2+ goals
66%
Cherno more II 3+ goals
40%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
63%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
26%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cherno more II (draw refunded)
81%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno more II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno more II attack 1.86 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.29

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Cherno more II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Cherno more II scores more
66%
level
19%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
15%

Cherno more II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Cherno more II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cherno more II vs Lokomotiv Ruse

Cherno more II and Lokomotiv Ruse drew 1-1 in Third League - Northeast on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Cherno More Sports Complex in Varna.