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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Botev Novi Pazar — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
CANC
00:00
Botev Novi Pazar
Botev Novi Pazar
9/29/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 7Stadion Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse49%
×Draw22%
Botev Novi Pazar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
1.93
Botev Novi Pazar
1.44

Lokomotiv Ruse creates 34% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 90 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Botev Novi Pazar
0.77

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Botev Novi Pazar
2.98

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Botev Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
71%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Botev Novi Pazar
78%
Draw or Botev Novi Pazar
51%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
28%
Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
57%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
30%
Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals
76%
Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals
42%
Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
63%
Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Botev Novi Pazar away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.98 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 1.93

Botev Novi Pazar attack 0.77 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
49%
level
22%
Botev Novi Pazar scores more
29%

Lokomotiv Ruse at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lokomotiv Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lokomotiv Ruse host Botev Novi Pazar

September 29, 2019: Lokomotiv Ruse take on Botev Novi Pazar in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lokomotiv Ruse host Botev Novi Pazar at Stadion Dunav.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.