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Botev Novi Pazar vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Botev Novi Pazar
Botev Novi Pazar
FT
2 – 1
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
10/9/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 8Stadion Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Botev Novi Pazar52%
×Draw23%
Lokomotiv Ruse26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Novi Pazar
1.89
Lokomotiv Ruse
1.27

Botev Novi Pazar creates 49% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 52 away

creates per match

Botev Novi Pazar
1.07
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Botev Novi Pazar
1.67
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Novi Pazar ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Botev Novi Pazar or draw
74%
Botev Novi Pazar or Lokomotiv Ruse
77%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
48%

Winning margin

Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+
29%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals
85%
Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals
56%
Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals
29%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
72%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
67%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 90 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.89

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Botev Novi Pazar scores more
52%
level
23%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
26%

Botev Novi Pazar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Botev Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Novi Pazar vs Lokomotiv Ruse

Botev Novi Pazar beat Lokomotiv Ruse 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Botev in Novi pazar.