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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Benkovski Isperih — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
FT
1 – 6
Benkovski Isperih
Benkovski Isperih
9/24/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 7Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse29%
×Draw23%
Benkovski Isperih48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
1.34
Benkovski Isperih
1.81

Benkovski Isperih creates 35% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 41 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Benkovski Isperih
1.51

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Benkovski Isperih
1.80

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Benkovski Isperih →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
52%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Benkovski Isperih
77%
Draw or Benkovski Isperih
71%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
12%
Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
74%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
39%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
15%
Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals
84%
Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals
54%
Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
37%
Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Benkovski Isperih away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.34

Benkovski Isperih attack 1.51 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
29%
level
23%
Benkovski Isperih scores more
48%

Benkovski Isperih at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benkovski Isperih will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Lokomotiv Ruse 1–6 Benkovski Isperih

Benkovski Isperih beat Lokomotiv Ruse 6-1 in Third League - Northeast on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Rousse.