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Benkovski Isperih vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Isperih
Benkovski Isperih
FT
7 – 0
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
4/6/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 22Stadion Mŭlniya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Benkovski Isperih68%
×Draw17%
Lokomotiv Ruse14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Isperih
2.49
Lokomotiv Ruse
1.05

Benkovski Isperih creates 137% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 52 away

creates per match

Benkovski Isperih
2.27
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Benkovski Isperih
1.23
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Benkovski Isperih+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Isperih ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Benkovski Isperih or draw
86%
Benkovski Isperih or Lokomotiv Ruse
83%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
32%

Winning margin

Benkovski Isperih wins by 2+
46%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Benkovski Isperih 1+ goals
92%
Benkovski Isperih 2+ goals
71%
Benkovski Isperih 3+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Isperih (draw refunded)
83%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Isperih at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Isperih attack 2.27 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.49

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Benkovski Isperih defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Benkovski Isperih scores more
68%
level
17%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
14%

Benkovski Isperih at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Benkovski Isperih will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benkovski Isperih vs Lokomotiv Ruse

Benkovski Isperih beat Lokomotiv Ruse 7-0 in Third League - Northeast on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Mŭlniya in Kliment.