Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–3 Hebar 1918: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Hebar 1918

9/13/2024

First League · Round 12Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv53%

×Draw25%

Hebar 191822%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv PlovdivExpected goals in this matchHebar 1918

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.93

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.58

Hebar 1918

0.93

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 70% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 54 away

1.34

creates per match

0.91

0.94

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.34

Hebar 1918

0.91

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.94

Hebar 1918

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Hebar 1918 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw

78%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Hebar 1918

75%

Draw or Hebar 1918

47%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

28%

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

79%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

47%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

21%

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

61%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

24%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

70%

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 135 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.81 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.34 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hebar 1918 attack 0.91 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

53%

level

25%

Hebar 1918 scores more

22%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff