Hebar 1918 1–2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv: Result & Stats

Hebar 1918

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

5/11/2025

First League · Relegation Round - 4Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Hebar 191831%

×Draw28%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebar 1918Expected goals in this matchLokomotiv Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.28

Hebar 1918

1.06

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.28

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 21% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 135 away

0.83

creates per match

1.16

1.40

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Hebar 1918

0.83

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.16

allows per match

Hebar 1918

1.40

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw

59%

Hebar 1918 or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

72%

Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

69%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

12%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

65%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

29%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

9%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

72%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

37%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

43%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 0.83 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.16 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more

31%

level

28%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

41%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff