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Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Botev Plovdiv — First League 2026

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
AWD
0 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
11/1/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv45%
×Draw27%
Botev Plovdiv27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.36
Botev Plovdiv
0.99

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 37% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 136 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.34
Botev Plovdiv
1.05

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.94
Botev Plovdiv
1.38

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Botev Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw
73%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Botev Plovdiv
73%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv
55%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+
21%
Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals
74%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
39%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals
16%
Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
63%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
26%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)
62%
Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 135 matches

Botev Plovdiv away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.38 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.34 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.05 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more
45%
level
27%
Botev Plovdiv scores more
27%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lokomotiv Plovdiv host Botev Plovdiv

November 1, 2025: Lokomotiv Plovdiv take on Botev Plovdiv in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv host Botev Plovdiv at Stadion Lokomotiv.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.