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Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — First League 2026

Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5/3/2026First LeagueFirst League · Conference League Group - 32Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Botev Plovdiv41%
×Draw27%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv
1.33
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.12

Botev Plovdiv creates 19% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 135 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.36
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.16

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.08
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.30

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw
69%
Botev Plovdiv or Lokomotiv Plovdiv
73%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv
59%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
19%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
74%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
38%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
15%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals
67%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
31%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
57%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.36 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.16 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more
41%
level
27%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more
31%

Botev Plovdiv at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Botev Plovdiv 0–2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Lokomotiv Plovdiv beat Botev Plovdiv 2-0 in First League on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Plovdiv.