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Lokomotiv Plovdiv II vs Levski Krumovgrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
4/9/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 26Sporten kompleks na EKIU

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II22%
×Draw23%
Levski Krumovgrad56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.08
Levski Krumovgrad
1.87

Levski Krumovgrad creates 73% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.75
Levski Krumovgrad
2.59

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.15
Levski Krumovgrad
0.41

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or draw
44%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or Levski Krumovgrad
77%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
78%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
8%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
66%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
29%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
10%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
85%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
56%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
28%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 92 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 2.59, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.75 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.08

Levski Krumovgrad attack 2.59 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
22%
level
23%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
56%

Levski Krumovgrad at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Plovdiv II vs Levski Krumovgrad

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II and Levski Krumovgrad drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Sporten kompleks na EKIU in Orizari.