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Levski Krumovgrad vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
5 – 0
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
10/2/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 9Stadion Levski Krumovgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad78%
×Draw14%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
2.83
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
0.83

Levski Krumovgrad creates 241% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 92 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
4.00
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.14

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
0.53
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.66

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
92%
Levski Krumovgrad or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
86%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
22%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
58%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
94%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
77%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
53%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
56%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
20%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
90%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 4.00 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.83

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.14 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
78%
level
14%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
8%

Levski Krumovgrad at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Levski Krumovgrad 5 – 0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

Levski Krumovgrad beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 5-0 in Third League - Southeast on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Levski Krumovgrad in Krumovgrad.