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Lokomotiv Plovdiv II vs FK Sliven — Third League - Southeast 2018

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
FT
5 – 0
FK Sliven
FK Sliven
2/26/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 21Stadion Sadovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II73%
×Draw15%
FK Sliven12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
2.83
FK Sliven
1.05

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II creates 170% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 38 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.75
FK Sliven
0.95

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.15
FK Sliven
3.92

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par
FK Sliven+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II ↓

FK Sliven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or draw
88%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or FK Sliven
85%
Draw or FK Sliven
27%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
53%
FK Sliven wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
94%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
77%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
53%
FK Sliven 1+ goals
65%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
28%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
86%
FK Sliven (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 92 matches

FK Sliven away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.75 + FK Sliven defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 2.83

FK Sliven attack 0.95 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
73%
level
15%
FK Sliven scores more
12%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Plovdiv II vs FK Sliven

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II beat FK Sliven 5-0 in Third League - Southeast on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sadovo in Sadovo.